Sabalenka closes in on US Open three-peat: Tactical win or dominant power?

The semifinal ended in two sets with a score of 7-5, 6-2, but the notable thing is not just the score. It's how Aryna Sabalenka controlled the match against Jessica Pegula – an opponent highly regarded for her return ability and steady rhythm. Through the eyes of a long-time beat reporter, I see a well-prepared tactical plan, not just raw power from the No. 1 seed.

The atmosphere in New York on Thursday night was special. A US Open semifinal night, Arthur Ashe Stadium nearly full, and Sabalenka walked in as the two-time defending champion. She stands on the verge of history – the first three-peat since Serena Williams from 2026–2026. But Pegula is no easy opponent. The American has reached US Open quarterfinals in recent years and possesses a tough defensive counterpunching style.

Numbers don't lie. We just have to ask the right questions. The question here is: Did Sabalenka win through power or tactics? The answer, from my observation, is both – but tactics were decisive.

In the first set, Pegula hung tough. The set was tight until 5-5, and that's when Sabalenka showed her maturity. Instead of trying to overpower her opponent with forehand bombs, she aggressively attacked Pegula's second serve – a weakness identified by her coaching staff. This tactic rattled Pegula's confidence on her own serve, creating the break opportunity that decided the set at 7-5.

The second set was a different story. Once Sabalenka had the psychological edge, she unleashed her full power. The 6-2 scoreline accurately reflected the class difference in that set. This was arguably Sabalenka's most impressive stretch of the tournament – as the original article noted.

Some things only appear when you sit still longer than a single set. Looking back at the entire match, I see a different Sabalenka from the image of a mere ball-basher. She knew when to attack, when to adjust tempo, and most importantly – she knew how to read the match.

Fans have the right to live in emotions; I have the duty to live in data. Although the source didn't provide detailed statistics (first-serve percentage, points won on serve, break-point conversion), the 7-5, 6-2 result together with match flow tells a clear story: Sabalenka had cracked Pegula's code.

However, I want to offer a contrarian view. Many think Sabalenka is at her peak and almost certain to win. But from my observation, while the win over Pegula was convincing, it revealed some signs to watch. The tight first set suggests that a player with strong stamina and good return ability can trouble Sabalenka. If the final opponent is Elena Rybakina (No. 2 seed) – a player with similar power and serve – or Coco Gauff (No. 4 seed) – with excellent athleticism and movement – the equation changes.

The beat keeper doesn't compose the music, but without him everything falls out of rhythm. For Sabalenka, the final is a chance to cement her status as WTA No. 1, but also a moment where historical pressure weighs heavily. She is defending 2,000 points from her US Open title. A loss in the final would cost her roughly 700 net points – not a disaster, but enough for a significant psychological blow.

Transfer rumors are a math problem: missing data, too many unknowns, all hypothetical solutions. Here, there are no rumors, only the truth on court: Sabalenka is in the final. She is one win away from a three-peat.

The comparison to Serena Williams is not accidental. This is the first time since 2026–2026 that a female player has a chance to win three consecutive US Open titles. Serena was at her zenith back then, completely dominant. Sabalenka, though different in style, is showing rare consistency in an era of increasingly fierce competition.

A new lineup, like a new watch, takes time to run accurately. In tennis, each new season is similar. Sabalenka has proven she can maintain peak form over multiple years – the hallmark of a true champion.

The Saturday final will decide not just the title, but legacy. A win would elevate Sabalenka into the pantheon of US Open living legends. A loss would remind that historical pressure is never light.

I don't remember what I wrote. I remember what I counted. As a beat reporter, I count: Sabalenka has won six consecutive matches at this US Open, two against top-10 opponents. She has not dropped a set since the third round. These are real numbers, and they speak volumes.

Let's wait for Saturday. Whatever the outcome, I will still be there, notebook in hand, counting every number, asking the right questions.

Question for next week: Can Sabalenka handle the pressure of a historic final, or will her opponent exploit hidden weaknesses in her game? The answer will come in less than 48 hours. But regardless, I have my notebook ready.