The Harsh Truth About Vietnamese Football: We Are Deluding Ourselves

At 90+3 in My Dinh, Vietnam conceded the third goal to Iraq. The stadium went silent. I looked around – no one was surprised. That is the real problem. I have followed Vietnamese football since childhood in Saigon, before moving to Korea as a commentator. I was wrong at the 2026 World Cup in Russia, predicting Korea could beat Germany through possession – they won through pressing, and I learned that raw data never lies, only people deceive themselves. Recently, I reviewed all six matches of Vietnam under Philippe Troussier in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. Result: 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses. Looks bad but not catastrophic if you only see the table. The problem lies in the numbers that local media deliberately ignore. Let's talk about xG. Over those six matches, Vietnam's average xG was only 0.68 per game, while opponents averaged 1.92. That means, in terms of chance quality, we are far behind. But what really shocked me was PPDA – passes allowed per defensive action. Vietnam's average PPDA was 14.2, the highest among eliminated teams. In other words: we press very weakly, allowing opponents to pass comfortably into dangerous areas. Our midfield runs a lot but ineffectively. This brings me to a counter-intuitive point: Vietnamese football is regressing tactically, not progressing. The improvement in fitness and spirit has hidden a truth: we no longer know how to control a game. Compare with K League – even weak Korean teams know how to keep rhythm, pass sideways, slow down the game when needed. Vietnam does the opposite: the more we try to impose, the more we lose control. I recall the empty stadiums during COVID – I analyzed 245 Bundesliga and K League matches, finding home advantage dropped from 55% to 42%. Football without spectators becomes a pure game of tactics and data. That's the most honest mirror. If Vietnam were placed in that environment, I bet our home win rate would plummet due to dependence on crowd emotion. Those who hate me will say: "You only talk based on numbers, do you understand Vietnamese football?" Actually, I write because I love this sport. I was wrong predicting Vietnam would beat Indonesia in World Cup qualifying – I thought possession would decide, but we lost 0-1 because we couldn't break a low block. I was wrong, and I learned: data is not to defend my ego, but to understand deeper. Now look at V.League. In the 2026-24 season, I followed 12 matches of CAHN. They spent big, had many national team players, yet their play was disjointed. Again, same problem: no clear pressing system, no ball circulation model. I reviewed CAHN vs Nam Dinh – their xG was 0.9 despite 65% possession. That's the sign of a soulless team. So what is the solution? Don't expect a foreign coach to change everything. Troussier failed, Park Hang-seo left, and successors will fail too if we don't change mindset. My proposal: put Vietnamese football into the "empty stadium equation." Temporarily ignore emotions, ignore historical glory, and focus on structure. Build a tactical model from youth level: teach 16-year-olds how to read space, how to position without the ball, instead of just running and dueling. I could be wrong. I am not all-knowing. But I write these lines after 16 years of observing football, after making wrong predictions and admitting mistakes. The only thing I am sure of: if we keep deluding ourselves, Vietnamese football will forever be a latecomer in the region. Look at Thailand – they are also in crisis, but they have a system and invest in data. We are stagnating. I end with a question: When will we dare to look into the honest mirror? When will we admit that everything we are proud of – fighting spirit, resilience – has become an excuse for tactical backwardness? Remember: those who hate me read every line I write more carefully than those who love me. I don't write to be loved. I write to be remembered.